11/4/2011 10:45:01 PM by BGboothA
Alright, been away from horses for a while, but that was due to working on a little horsey project. A friend and I have been putting together a little system with some back testing and its looking pretty good. A couple of hangups that I am still trying to figure out.
1. Don't know how to account for European PP's. Our system doesn't read them.
2. Don't know how to account for first time starters or short history horses. (not that is a problem for BC Saturday)
--------------------------------------------------
Race 1 = 8-1 w/ 2
This is...
5/20/2011 5:43:17 PM by BGboothA
----------------------------
[B]Race 9 (6,2,7/4)
[/B]
#1 and #6 should lead the race, the #1 doesn't have the distance to hold on, the #6 might hold, but the duel with the 1 could tire him out. However, if the #6 holds back and lets the #1 go, the #6 could win easily with mid late kick.
#2 and #7 will be pressing, should make up the second group most of the way, an dhave the best shot at overtaking the 1 and 6. The #7 late pace is huge compared to the #2 could come down to positioning around the...
10/9/2010 2:44:19 AM by BGboothA
Pac-10 Love
Who knew a Duck could destroy a cougar at will; on the
discovery channel this outcome may have a different outcome, but come Saturday
in Pullman a ‘pride’ of cougars will have no shot against a few ducks. Let’s be realistic, the ducks could play all
their freshman and the Cougars wouldn’t have a shot to win this game. But that’s not what we are here about, we are
here looking at a 35.5 to 36 point spread.
The Cougars are coming off a game in which they stayed
relatively close to a horrible UCLA Bruins team only to lose 42-28 after some
late scoring by the Bruins. They won’t
have the same luck against the Ducks this week at home. The Cougars are giving up 42.8 points per
game on defense over the past two seasons; while the offense has actually had
more punting yards than total offensive yards in the same time span! Un-Freakin-Believable!
The Ducks on the opposite side are scoring a crazy 56.6
points per game and managed to put up 52 against a solid Stanford team this
past weekend. More importantly to this
spread the Ducks were bumped ahead of Boise State overtaking the #3 spot in the
BCS rankings. Fact is; if Oregon wants
to move into BCS title contention they have to win, and they have to win
big. Oregon has the ability to jump out
to an early lead in Pullman, and won’t slow down or look back. They need to score and they need to keep
scoring. Oregon has a serious chance to
put up 70 plus points this weekend against a horrible Cougars defense.
The Ducks have outscored opponents 141-68 in the first half
this season; and that’s against Stanford, Arizona State, Portland State,
Tennessee and New Mexico. This weekend
they get a JV High School team in Washington State who would be lucky to win
against any of Oregon’s opponents thus far this season.
BET = OREGON -36
Realistically speaking the Cougars will more than likely not
put up their share of points to help this total of 70; at first I wanted to
stay far away from this total as Oregon could put up close to the 70 needed by
themselves, but may not get any help from Washington State. The total here is sitting in a really funny
position. It wouldn’t surprise me if
this game goes over, and I believe that it has a good chance to go over. If this game was in Oregon it would worry me
more, as WSU would be even harder pressed to score in Eugene. But I think Washington State has a chance to
score double digits. If Oregon can put
up 15-20 points this game goes over with ease. With that in mind, and knowing this game has a good potential to score
high, weather doesn’t look like its going to be an issue. All this being said, I have to say its more
likely to go over than to stay under. One
of these bets that isn’t a guaranteed win, but I think if you made it 100 times
you would come out ahead, and that’s all we are looking for. A decent price on a decent line.
BET = OVER 70 (Small
bet)
9/16/2010 8:42:50 PM by BGboothA
Huskers at Huskies, the game of the week that no one is
talking about.
This game is setting up to be a huge game for both
programs. A loss for Nebraska could take
them out of the top ten and a loss for the Huskies could send them on a
downward spiral that could make Jake Locker wish he was playing for the St.
Louis Rams. Both teams are looking at
this game to set the tone for the rest of the season. Washington is coming off an easy win over
Syracuse after losing week one against a solid BYU team. Nebraska will face their first real football
game of the season, having wasted the first two weeks on Idaho and Western
Kentucky.
When I first glanced at the line I was quite surprised at
the field goal difference separating the two teams. An 8th ranked team coming into a
game against a 1-1 team from a fairly low level major conference in the
Pac-10. I was expecting to see a line
somewhere closer to a touchdown. However, after looking closer at the game I
can say that this game could be closer to a pick’em than most people think. The main reason is simple, the game is in
Seattle.
If this game where to happen in Nebraska or on a neutral site
it easily could be a touchdown difference, but here in Seattle, we take our
home field advantage pretty freakin seriously. (see the 12th man at Qwest Field). The Huskies are may be 6-19 over the last 25
games, they are 6-1 over the last 7 at home. The one loss was to a #14 Oregon team. The Huskers are bringing in a team lead by redshirt freshman Taylor
Martinez who has yet to face a real defense or even a real team so far in Idaho
and Western Kentucky. While Martinez has
looked good and has put up quality numbers over those two starts, he has yet to
face anything. It would be tough to
imagine that start coming in a hostile Husky Stadium. The crowd noise will be a factor for this
young man. The Husky defense isn’t something
that will win a national championship, but it will create the opportunities for
turnovers. The combination of these two
will create a chance for Washington to jump on top of this young quarterback
and force redshirt freshman into passes and situations he simply hasn’t handled
before.
The Husky offense and Jake Locker should be able to score
against a decent Nebraska defense. The
key to this game isn’t going to be when Washington has the ball. Washington will put up their 30 points or so…the
key is going to be whether or not Taylor Martinez can score and keep his cool
under pressure. This is one of those
games that could go in any direction. Would it surprise me if Nebraska wins by 20? NO, would it surprise me Washington wins by
20…NO. This game could easily come down
the a field goal and could come down in any direction. My play is simple, ignore the line and play
the +135-140 (as it sits while writing), I see this game as a 50/50 game with a
chance at a positive return. Quite
frankly this isn’t a game that’s a guaranteed win on Saturday; it is simply a
good investment play. If these two teams
played 100 games and you made the same bet on each game. Each team wins 50 games you are looking at a
40% profit.
BGBOOTHA’s PLAY = UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON MONEYLINE +140ish
9/14/2010 9:13:47 PM by BGboothA
Alright stop and take a big deep breath....let reality slip back
in. It's been 1 game in the fantasy football world. While we did
learn some things in week 1 there were many things in week 1 that can't be
taken too seriously.
Hopefully no one out there is rushing to trade Arian Foster for
Adrian Peterson. We don' really believe that Arian is going to have a
3,000 yard season, do we? NO of course not. But it leads to a great
example of fantasy football economics. Every league has a number of
owners that ride the wave and jump on and off bandwagons with the greatest of
ease. Its these owners that you need to find and focus your trade talks
with. Guys who had monster weeks like Arian Foster are hot on the market
right now. If you can deal them for someone's first round pick or even
second round pick at this point, its probably a wise decision. If you can
go out and get a guy like Andre Johnson who had a horrible fantasy week, but
went in teh first round of most drafts, go for it. Johnson isn't a guy
who is going to finish the year averaging 33 yards a game. (In fact the
combination of these two extremes is something I will talk about tomorrow.
What adjustments can be made to our rankings thanks to what happened in
week 1.)
Its not time to give up on your pre-season rankings, unless they
included Ryan Grant leading the league in rushing. If you are reading
this and you haven't already checked if Brandon Jackson is available in your
league than you shouldn't be reading this.
But what did we learn from week 1, what are some things we can
take away.
QBs = Peyton looked like Peyton, they might have lost, but that
really doesn’t matter to us in Fantasyland. Mike Martz has made himself known to Chicago and Jay Cutler owners, a big
week from Cutler is nice to see for those of use who took a chance on him and
waited out the first few rounds for our quarterbacks. Carson Palmer might be back, I am not going
to jump fully on this bandwagon quite yet, but he showed that he can use those
new targets to his advantage. Matt
Schuab owners can’t help but be disappointed in what they saw from their starting
QB, but it isn’t going to stay. Let’s
see how Schuab does when defenses start worrying about Foster and forget about
Schuab and Andre. Some things to think
about, Kyle Orton and Derek Anderson both threw for 290+ yards and need to be
on your radar if you are one of the unfortunate ones who had Stafford or Kolb
go down in week 1.
RBs = Obviously Chris Johnson and Arian Foster had huge weeks, if you
don’t already know that then stop playing fantasy football. Some backs had great weeks and could be
flying under the radar. Jahvid Best may
have only had 20 yards on the ground, but he had two touchdowns against a tough
Chicago defense. Cadillac Williams quietly
had 22 carries for 75 yards, if he gets in the endzone he has a nice week. More importantly he may have showed that he
truly is the number option down in Tampa. Another important note, regarding a different RBBC, Ahmad Bradshaw received
20 carries and 4 targets on Sunday, proving that Brandon Jacobs is becoming an
afterthought in New York.
WR’s, TE, Defenses will be looked at tomorrow.
9/8/2010 4:36:01 AM by BGboothA
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (NO -4.5 OVER/UNDER
48)
First and foremost, when I first looked at this game, I my
initial thought was that Minnesota should have a chance to win this game, let
alone cover more than a field goal spread.
However, after doing some research that I am about to share with you, I
have not only moved away from the Minnesota money line, but I am looking at NO
as a strong play at -4.5 to -5.5. As I
write this on Tuesday night the line is sitting anywhere from 4.5 to 5 at most
books. I would guess its closer to a
touchdown before kickoff on Thursday.
First let us start with Minnesota. What's different? Two main things, Chester Taylor and Sidney
Rice; most people write off the loss of Chester Taylor as a minor note in the
Vikings offense, but I would tend to disagree.
Adrian Peterson has never carried a full load, he has carried 85% or so
of the offense, but the change to Taylor has been a key part of Minnesota's
offense. Toby Gerhart is no slouch, but
his first NFL game isn't going to be him at full potential. The absence of Sidney Rice is huge. Rice helped stretch the field and open things
up for Harvin and the rest of the gang, without the ability to pull the
safeties and keep them honest deep, the field will shrink for Favre and the
rest of the Vikings.
Now add to all of this the fact that Favre is only a couple
weeks into training camp and last season he took a little while to get into the
swing of things. Now I am not crazy
enough to tell you that Brett needs a good amount of time to get acclimated to
playing football, but the first two weeks of 2009. In week 1, Brett threw for 110 yards and 1
touchdown against Cleveland. In week 2,
Brett improved to 155 yards. I don't
have the faith in Favre and a Rice-less/Taylor-less Vikings offense to keep up
with the scoring the New Orleans has the ability to put down.
New Orleans haven't changed much, their SuperBowl team is
nearly fully intact at full health and at home in the SuperDome. Brees, Thomas,
Bush, Colston, Henderson are all coming back in front of a home town crowd and
will celebrate their SuperBowl win by crushing Minnesota. The line of -4.5 is nothing, this could
easily be a two touchdown game before halftime and New Orleans won't look
back.
The total is another interesting bet, just crunching some numbers
the Saints were responsible for an average of 53.2 points per game last season
(averaging 31.9 points scored and 21.3 points against), the Vikings were
responsible for an average of 48.9 point per game last season (averaging 29.4
points scored and 19.5 points against).
Creating an average total of 51.5.
I know this is elementary and doesn't take many things into account, but
it's a good starting point for this example.
The line while I am writing this
is Over/Under 48; only two points under the average the two teams were putting
up last year. Add to the fact its going
to be week 1, the absence of Rice and Taylor for Minnesota; I see this game
staying under. That being said, with
Harvin and Bush returning kicks, I don't see anyway to cap this total with
confidence. I will say I am leaning
toward the under, but definitely keeping my money away from the total.
BGboothA's bet = New
Orleans -4.5
1/30/2010 7:20:01 AM by BGboothA
Sunshine Millions Classic S.
1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Jeranimo Blanc B Pender Michael 120 L 6-1
2 2 Unusual Suspect Quinonez A Abrams Barry 122 L 30-1
3 3 Enriched Baze M C O'Neill Doug 122 L 6-1
4 4 Palladio Smith M E Attfield Roger L 122 L 30-1
5 5 Unusual Smoke Garcia M Avila A C 122 L 30-1
6 6 Bad Action Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 120 L 20-1
7 7 The Usual Q. T. Espinoza V Cassidy James 120 L 5-2
8 8 Compari Gomez G K Jones Martin F 120 L 3-1
9 9 Bold Chieftain Baze R A Morey William J Jr 122 L 6-1
10 10 Wicked Style Bejarano R Arnold George R II 122 L 10-1
11 11 Acclamation Flores D R Warren Donald 120 L 10-1
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Rolling Double / $1 Pick Three...
1/30/2010 7:16:20 AM by BGboothA
1/10/2010 7:14:04 AM by BGboothA
Alright, I have asked this question to just about everyone I know who follows and bets on horse racing. I get some answers, but for the most part I get something along the lines of..."I use a bunch of stuff and just come up with my own little system." This is great, and some of those systems are working. However, I am fairly new to this whole horse racing game (football is my betting passion). So I wanted to know how different people cap races.
What do you focus on? *Beyer Speeds *Trainer %s *History *Jockeys *Pedigree *$$$ *History vs. Similar *Class Droppers
I would assume that most people's automatic reply would be ALL OF THE ABOVE. As a teacher I started looking at this as a student, and realized that before I could learn I needed feedback on my own capping. Not just the getting told how other do it. So that is what I am asking here. I am going to cap a few races and try to walk through how I come to my conclusions.
Really I would love some honest feedback on what you do different, or what you do the same. Maybe if I missed looking at something. Really just any feedback would be appreciated.
With that in mind I am going to cap the 4th race at Santa Anita tomorrow 1/10/10. Not sure why I just picked that race, other than I was going through my capping stuff for tomorrow, and thought of this idea right before capping the 4th at Santa Anita. So here goes.
SANTA ANITA RACE 4 1. Chailepis 1a. Sence of Occasion 2. Ol'dogtown 3. Rio Classic 4. Exile 5. Negreanu 6. Magic Dust 7. The Life of Alex
I really try to ignore the morning line when looking at this. I am not sure if that is a mistake; should that factor into it. Really this idea comes from my football capping background, when capping football I don't look at the spread before creating my own spread.
Alright the first thing I look at is BEYER SPEEDS, I know they aren't the holy grail but its where I start. I don't really look at just the speed from the last race, but a quick glance at averages of races that are similar to the race they are in.
2. Ol'Dogtown 79 4. Exile 78 3. Rio Classic 76 5. Negreanu 67 6. Magic Dust 66 1. 64 1a.???? 7. ????
The first thing I notice is the drop between 76 speed of Rio Classic and 67 speed of Negreanu. And the 1a and 7 are first time starters so they obviously don't have speed figures. ------------------------------------- I have found that running styles seem to play a larger part in the races than I first thought of, so this has become the second thing I look for. I use the brisnet.com racing sheets so I am not sure how others see this but Brisnet lists them as E, E/P, P and S. In theory the more E you have the race the faster the pace will be, the faster the pace is the better its sets up the P and S runningstyles.
In this race there are 4 early pace horses: E 2 Ol'dogtown E 3 Rio Classic E 5 Negreanu E 1 Chailepis
One horse is listed as a P P 4 Exile
The other three horses don't have run styles listed. ------------------------------ Now I look at some notes that Brisnet has on the horses at this point I start eliminating horses and simply crossing them off the list. 1. Chailepis *Blinkers added - May help but probably not enough to make a difference. *3rd vs similar - Looking at this, he did finish third, but he was 9 lengths back after weakening at the end. Also noted that he tired at the exact same 5.5 furlong distance. *Poor Speed Figures in both career starts - 1a. Sense of Occasion *1st time starter *Sharp 3f workout - Well good news for a 1st time starter *Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters - More + signs for the 1st time starter. 2. Ol'Dogtown *Best dirt speed is fastest among starters *Poor Jockey and Poor Trainer % *Listed as an E running style but has stalked and weakened in last 6f race. drop to 5.5 furlong may help. 3. Rio Classic *Drops in class *Hot Jockey - 2nd consecutive start with Alex Solis on board could help *Poor Trainer % 4. Exile *Drop in Class *Best Dirt speed is faster than average winning speed *Highest speed rating last *Hasn't raced in 57 days 5. Negreanu *Drops in class *Poor speed figures in only career starts 6. Magic Dust *Hot Jockey *Sharp 4f workout *High trainer % *Finished far back in last start 7. The Life of Alex *Hot Trainer *First time starter -------------------------------------- After all these steps I was able to throw out a few of the horses off my list. I got one the 4 horse Exile that is standing out in front. Also, I am starting to really like the 2 horse Ol'Dogtown.
The other ones in blue are ones that I have on my list but can't find a reason to love them or to hate them.
However, the 3 horse Rio Classic weekened in its last race that was 7f, it also takes a drop in class where he finished 4th behind Zohan who just killed in his last start. Also like the fact that Alex Solis gets his second ride in a row. Will include this horse in my exacta box pix.
The final horse I will include will be the 1a, I think its the best of the 1st time starters, plus with it coupled you get another horse for free in the 1 although I don't see the 1 being a part of the contest.
4 Exile w/ 2, 3,1a
Now looking at the Morning lines, I realize that the 4 Exile is a huge ML favorite. That being said I probably won't play him to W/P, just not worth it. I may play the 2 W/P depending on the odds at Post. I will probably play this as a 4,2/4,2,3 exacta wheel. But it depends on the post time odds.
1/7/2010 6:32:21 PM by BGboothA
GULFSTREAM PARK 01/07/2010
Race #1 = 9 Gift Coupon w/ 7-5-12
Race #2 = 3 Bl'snoise w/ 7-4-10
Race #3 = 12 Simplyimpressive w/ 10-5-8
Race #4 = 5 Ocalarocket w/ 4-7-9
Race #5 = 1a Scottkeith'skitten w/ 4 Pistol Rules w/ 8-5 (Exacta box 1-4 only, no W/P)
Race #6 = 2 Bylandorbysea w/ 7-6-11
Race #7 = 5 Toocleverforworsd w/ 2 SpeakEasyGal w/ 7-3 (5 W/P, Exacta wheel 5,2/5,2,7,3) ($12 race)
Race #8 = 4 Thankuphillippe w/ 6-3-11
Race #9 = 13 w/ 6-12-4 (I also really like the 6 here, not sure how I am going to bet this)
Total Risk for Gulfstream Park 01/07/2010 = $86
---------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN GATE PARK 01/07/2010
Race #1 = 5 ExlusiveGame w/ 1-3-2
Race #2 = 2 JulesJ w/ 6-4-3
Race #3 = 1 Zohan w/ 2-6-5
Race #4 = 8 Grylls w/ 2-3-4
Race #5 = 2 LadyDawn w/ 1-3-4
Race #6 = 5 Lordgivemealift w/ 1-6-3
Race #7 = 4 Judge'sverdict w/ 9-2-1
Race #8= 5 Perfect Hostess w/ 6-4-3
Race #2 DD = 2-1 ($2)
Race #1 Pick 3 = 1,5/2/1 ($2)
Race #5 Pick 4 = 1,3,2/5,2,3/4,9/5 ($18)
Total Risk @ Golden Gate = $102
----------------------
*As always for grading purposes the races will be graded with a $2 Win/Place bet on the key horse followed by an exacta wheel keying the horse listed unless otherwise noted.
BGboothA's Handicapper Network
|
|
|