Alright, been away from horses for a while, but that was due to working on a little horsey project. A friend and I have been putting together a little system with some back testing and its looking pretty good. A couple of hangups that I am still trying to figure out.

1. Don't know how to account for European PP's. Our system doesn't read them.
2. Don't know how to account for first time starters or short history horses. (not that is a problem for BC Saturday)

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Race 1 = 8-1 w/ 2
This is...

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[B]Race 9 (6,2,7/4)
[/B]
#1 and #6 should lead the race, the #1 doesn't have the distance to hold on, the #6 might hold, but the duel with the 1 could tire him out. However, if the #6 holds back and lets the #1 go, the #6 could win easily with mid late kick.

#2 and #7 will be pressing, should make up the second group most of the way, an dhave the best shot at overtaking the 1 and 6. The #7 late pace is huge compared to the #2 could come down to positioning around the...

Pac-10 Love

Who knew a Duck could destroy a cougar at will; on the discovery channel this outcome may have a different outcome, but come Saturday in Pullman a ‘pride’ of cougars will have no shot against a few ducks.  Let’s be realistic, the ducks could play all their freshman and the Cougars wouldn’t have a shot to win this game.  But that’s not what we are here about, we are here looking at a 35.5 to 36 point spread.

The Cougars are coming off a game in which they stayed relatively close to a horrible UCLA Bruins team only to lose 42-28 after some late scoring by the Bruins.  They won’t have the same luck against the Ducks this week at home.  The Cougars are giving up 42.8 points per game on defense over the past two seasons; while the offense has actually had more punting yards than total offensive yards in the same time span!  Un-Freakin-Believable!

The Ducks on the opposite side are scoring a crazy 56.6 points per game and managed to put up 52 against a solid Stanford team this past weekend.  More importantly to this spread the Ducks were bumped ahead of Boise State overtaking the #3 spot in the BCS rankings.  Fact is; if Oregon wants to move into BCS title contention they have to win, and they have to win big.  Oregon has the ability to jump out to an early lead in Pullman, and won’t slow down or look back.  They need to score and they need to keep scoring.  Oregon has a serious chance to put up 70 plus points this weekend against a horrible Cougars defense.   

The Ducks have outscored opponents 141-68 in the first half this season; and that’s against Stanford, Arizona State, Portland State, Tennessee and New Mexico.  This weekend they get a JV High School team in Washington State who would be lucky to win against any of Oregon’s opponents thus far this season.

BET = OREGON -36

Realistically speaking the Cougars will more than likely not put up their share of points to help this total of 70; at first I wanted to stay far away from this total as Oregon could put up close to the 70 needed by themselves, but may not get any help from Washington State.  The total here is sitting in a really funny position.  It wouldn’t surprise me if this game goes over, and I believe that it has a good chance to go over.  If this game was in Oregon it would worry me more, as WSU would be even harder pressed to score in Eugene.  But I think Washington State has a chance to score double digits.  If Oregon can put up 15-20 points this game goes over with ease.  With that in mind, and knowing this game has a good potential to score high, weather doesn’t look like its going to be an issue.  All this being said, I have to say its more likely to go over than to stay under.  One of these bets that isn’t a guaranteed win, but I think if you made it 100 times you would come out ahead, and that’s all we are looking for.  A decent price on a decent line. 

BET = OVER 70 (Small bet)

Huskers at Huskies, the game of the week that no one is talking about. 

 

This game is setting up to be a huge game for both programs.  A loss for Nebraska could take them out of the top ten and a loss for the Huskies could send them on a downward spiral that could make Jake Locker wish he was playing for the St. Louis Rams.  Both teams are looking at this game to set the tone for the rest of the season.  Washington is coming off an easy win over Syracuse after losing week one against a solid BYU team.  Nebraska will face their first real football game of the season, having wasted the first two weeks on Idaho and Western Kentucky.

When I first glanced at the line I was quite surprised at the field goal difference separating the two teams.  An 8^th ranked team coming into a game against a 1-1 team from a fairly low level major conference in the Pac-10.  I was expecting to see a line somewhere closer to a touchdown. However, after looking closer at the game I can say that this game could be closer to a pick’em than most people think.  The main reason is simple, the game is in Seattle. 

If this game where to happen in Nebraska or on a neutral site it easily could be a touchdown difference, but here in Seattle, we take our home field advantage pretty freakin seriously.  (see the 12^th man at Qwest Field).  The Huskies are may be 6-19 over the last 25 games, they are 6-1 over the last 7 at home.  The one loss was to a #14 Oregon team.  The Huskers are bringing in a team lead by redshirt freshman Taylor Martinez who has yet to face a real defense or even a real team so far in Idaho and Western Kentucky.  While Martinez has looked good and has put up quality numbers over those two starts, he has yet to face anything.  It would be tough to imagine that start coming in a hostile Husky Stadium.  The crowd noise will be a factor for this young man.  The Husky defense isn’t something that will win a national championship, but it will create the opportunities for turnovers.  The combination of these two will create a chance for Washington to jump on top of this young quarterback and force redshirt freshman into passes and situations he simply hasn’t handled before.

The Husky offense and Jake Locker should be able to score against a decent Nebraska defense.  The key to this game isn’t going to be when Washington has the ball.  Washington will put up their 30 points or so…the key is going to be whether or not Taylor Martinez can score and keep his cool under pressure.  This is one of those games that could go in any direction.  Would it surprise me if Nebraska wins by 20?  NO, would it surprise me Washington wins by 20…NO.  This game could easily come down the a field goal and could come down in any direction.  My play is simple, ignore the line and play the +135-140 (as it sits while writing), I see this game as a 50/50 game with a chance at a positive return.  Quite frankly this isn’t a game that’s a guaranteed win on Saturday; it is simply a good investment play.  If these two teams played 100 games and you made the same bet on each game.  Each team wins 50 games you are looking at a 40% profit. 

BGBOOTHA’s PLAY = UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON MONEYLINE +140ish

Alright stop and take a big deep breath....let reality slip back in.  It's been 1 game in the fantasy football world.  While we did learn some things in week 1 there were many things in week 1 that can't be taken too seriously.  

Hopefully no one out there is rushing to trade Arian Foster for Adrian Peterson.  We don' really believe that Arian is going to have a 3,000 yard season, do we?  NO of course not.  But it leads to a great example of fantasy football economics.  Every league has a number of owners that ride the wave and jump on and off bandwagons with the greatest of ease.  Its these owners that you need to find and focus your trade talks with.  Guys who had monster weeks like Arian Foster are hot on the market right now.  If you can deal them for someone's first round pick or even second round pick at this point, its probably a wise decision.  If you can go out and get a guy like Andre Johnson who had a horrible fantasy week, but went in teh first round of most drafts, go for it.  Johnson isn't a guy who is going to finish the year averaging 33 yards a game.  (In fact the combination of these two extremes is something I will talk about tomorrow.  What adjustments can be made to our rankings thanks to what happened in week 1.)

Its not time to give up on your pre-season rankings, unless they included Ryan Grant leading the league in rushing.  If you are reading this and you haven't already checked if Brandon Jackson is available in your league than you shouldn't be reading this.  

But what did we learn from week 1, what are some things we can take away.

QBs = Peyton looked like Peyton, they might have lost, but that really doesn’t matter to us in Fantasyland.  Mike Martz has made himself known to Chicago and Jay Cutler owners, a big week from Cutler is nice to see for those of use who took a chance on him and waited out the first few rounds for our quarterbacks.  Carson Palmer might be back, I am not going to jump fully on this bandwagon quite yet, but he showed that he can use those new targets to his advantage.  Matt Schuab owners can’t help but be disappointed in what they saw from their starting QB, but it isn’t going to stay.  Let’s see how Schuab does when defenses start worrying about Foster and forget about Schuab and Andre.   Some things to think about, Kyle Orton and Derek Anderson both threw for 290+ yards and need to be on your radar if you are one of the unfortunate ones who had Stafford or Kolb go down in week 1. 

RBs = Obviously Chris Johnson and Arian Foster had huge weeks, if you don’t already know that then stop playing fantasy football.  Some backs had great weeks and could be flying under the radar.  Jahvid Best may have only had 20 yards on the ground, but he had two touchdowns against a tough Chicago defense.  Cadillac Williams quietly had 22 carries for 75 yards, if he gets in the endzone he has a nice week.  More importantly he may have showed that he truly is the number option down in Tampa.  Another important note, regarding a different RBBC, Ahmad Bradshaw received 20 carries and 4 targets on Sunday, proving that Brandon Jacobs is becoming an afterthought in New York.

WR’s, TE, Defenses will be looked at tomorrow.  

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (NO -4.5 OVER/UNDER 48)

First and foremost, when I first looked at this game, I my initial thought was that Minnesota should have a chance to win this game, let alone cover more than a field goal spread.  However, after doing some research that I am about to share with you, I have not only moved away from the Minnesota money line, but I am looking at NO as a strong play at -4.5 to -5.5.  As I write this on Tuesday night the line is sitting anywhere from 4.5 to 5 at most books.  I would guess its closer to a touchdown before kickoff on Thursday. 

First let us start with Minnesota.  What's different?  Two main things, Chester Taylor and Sidney Rice; most people write off the loss of Chester Taylor as a minor note in the Vikings offense, but I would tend to disagree.  Adrian Peterson has never carried a full load, he has carried 85% or so of the offense, but the change to Taylor has been a key part of Minnesota's offense.  Toby Gerhart is no slouch, but his first NFL game isn't going to be him at full potential.  The absence of Sidney Rice is huge.  Rice helped stretch the field and open things up for Harvin and the rest of the gang, without the ability to pull the safeties and keep them honest deep, the field will shrink for Favre and the rest of the Vikings. 

Now add to all of this the fact that Favre is only a couple weeks into training camp and last season he took a little while to get into the swing of things.  Now I am not crazy enough to tell you that Brett needs a good amount of time to get acclimated to playing football, but the first two weeks of 2009.  In week 1, Brett threw for 110 yards and 1 touchdown against Cleveland.  In week 2, Brett improved to 155 yards.  I don't have the faith in Favre and a Rice-less/Taylor-less Vikings offense to keep up with the scoring the New Orleans has the ability to put down.

New Orleans haven't changed much, their SuperBowl team is nearly fully intact at full health and at home in the SuperDome. Brees, Thomas, Bush, Colston, Henderson are all coming back in front of a home town crowd and will celebrate their SuperBowl win by crushing Minnesota.  The line of -4.5 is nothing, this could easily be a two touchdown game before halftime and New Orleans won't look back. 

The total is another interesting bet, just crunching some numbers the Saints were responsible for an average of 53.2 points per game last season (averaging 31.9 points scored and 21.3 points against), the Vikings were responsible for an average of 48.9 point per game last season (averaging 29.4 points scored and 19.5 points against).  Creating an average total of 51.5.  I know this is elementary and doesn't take many things into account, but it's a good starting point for this example.   The line while I am writing this is Over/Under 48; only two points under the average the two teams were putting up last year.  Add to the fact its going to be week 1, the absence of Rice and Taylor for Minnesota; I see this game staying under.  That being said, with Harvin and Bush returning kicks, I don't see anyway to cap this total with confidence.  I will say I am leaning toward the under, but definitely keeping my money away from the total.  

BGboothA's bet = New Orleans -4.5 

Sunshine Millions Classic S.
1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Jeranimo Blanc B Pender Michael 120 L 6-1
2 2 Unusual Suspect Quinonez A Abrams Barry 122 L 30-1
3 3 Enriched Baze M C O'Neill Doug 122 L 6-1
4 4 Palladio Smith M E Attfield Roger L 122 L 30-1
5 5 Unusual Smoke Garcia M Avila A C 122 L 30-1
6 6 Bad Action Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 120 L 20-1
7 7 The Usual Q. T. Espinoza V Cassidy James 120 L 5-2
8 8 Compari Gomez G K Jones Martin F 120 L 3-1
9 9 Bold Chieftain Baze R A Morey William J Jr 122 L 6-1
10 10 Wicked Style Bejarano R Arnold George R II 122 L 10-1
11 11 Acclamation Flores D R Warren Donald 120 L 10-1


$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Rolling Double / $1 Pick Three...

 

Alright, I have asked this question to just about everyone I know who follows and bets on horse racing. I get some answers, but for the most part I get something along the lines of..."I use a bunch of stuff and just come up with my own little system." This is great, and some of those systems are working. However, I am fairly new to this whole horse racing game (football is my betting passion). So I wanted to know how different people cap races. 

What do you focus on? 
*Beyer Speeds
*Trainer %s
*History
*Jockeys
*Pedigree
*$$$
*History vs. Similar
*Class Droppers

I would assume that most people's automatic reply would be ALL OF THE ABOVE. 
As a teacher I started looking at this as a student, and realized that before I could learn I needed feedback on my own capping. Not just the getting told how other do it. So that is what I am asking here. I am going to cap a few races and try to walk through how I come to my conclusions. 

Really I would love some honest feedback on what you do different, or what you do the same. Maybe if I missed looking at something. Really just any feedback would be appreciated. 

With that in mind I am going to cap the 4th race at Santa Anita tomorrow 1/10/10. Not sure why I just picked that race, other than I was going through my capping stuff for tomorrow, and thought of this idea right before capping the 4th at Santa Anita. So here goes. 

SANTA ANITA RACE 4
1. Chailepis
1a. Sence of Occasion
2. Ol'dogtown
3. Rio Classic
4. Exile
5. Negreanu
6. Magic Dust
7. The Life of Alex

I really try to ignore the morning line when looking at this. I am not sure if that is a mistake; should that factor into it. Really this idea comes from my football capping background, when capping football I don't look at the spread before creating my own spread. 

Alright the first thing I look at is BEYER SPEEDS, I know they aren't the holy grail but its where I start. I don't really look at just the speed from the last race, but a quick glance at averages of races that are similar to the race they are in. 

2. Ol'Dogtown 79
4. Exile 78
3. Rio Classic 76
5. Negreanu 67
6. Magic Dust 66
1. 64
1a.????
7. ????

The first thing I notice is the drop between 76 speed of Rio Classic and 67 speed of Negreanu. And the 1a and 7 are first time starters so they obviously don't have speed figures. 
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I have found that running styles seem to play a larger part in the races than I first thought of, so this has become the second thing I look for. I use the brisnet.com racing sheets so I am not sure how others see this but Brisnet lists them as E, E/P, P and S. In theory the more E you have the race the faster the pace will be, the faster the pace is the better its sets up the P and S runningstyles.

In this race there are 4 early pace horses:
E 2 Ol'dogtown
E 3 Rio Classic
E 5 Negreanu
E 1 Chailepis

One horse is listed as a P
P 4 Exile

The other three horses don't have run styles listed. 
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Now I look at some notes that Brisnet has on the horses at this point I start eliminating horses and simply crossing them off the list. 
1. Chailepis
*Blinkers added - May help but probably not enough to make a difference.
*3rd vs similar - Looking at this, he did finish third, but he was 9 lengths back after weakening at the end. Also noted that he tired at the exact same 5.5 furlong distance.
*Poor Speed Figures in both career starts - 
1a. Sense of Occasion
*1st time starter
*Sharp 3f workout - Well good news for a 1st time starter
*Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters - More + signs for the 1st time starter.
2. Ol'Dogtown
*Best dirt speed is fastest among starters
*Poor Jockey and Poor Trainer %
*Listed as an E running style but has stalked and weakened in last 6f race. drop to 5.5 furlong may help.
3. Rio Classic
*Drops in class
*Hot Jockey - 2nd consecutive start with Alex Solis on board could help
*Poor Trainer %
4. Exile
*Drop in Class
*Best Dirt speed is faster than average winning speed
*Highest speed rating last
*Hasn't raced in 57 days
5. Negreanu
*Drops in class 
*Poor speed figures in only career starts
6. Magic Dust
*Hot Jockey
*Sharp 4f workout
*High trainer %
*Finished far back in last start
7. The Life of Alex
*Hot Trainer 
*First time starter
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After all these steps I was able to throw out a few of the horses off my list. I got one the 4 horse Exile that is standing out in front. Also, I am starting to really like the 2 horse Ol'Dogtown.

The other ones in blue are ones that I have on my list but can't find a reason to love them or to hate them. 

However, the 3 horse Rio Classic weekened in its last race that was 7f, it also takes a drop in class where he finished 4th behind Zohan who just killed in his last start. Also like the fact that Alex Solis gets his second ride in a row. Will include this horse in my exacta box pix. 

The final horse I will include will be the 1a, I think its the best of the 1st time starters, plus with it coupled you get another horse for free in the 1 although I don't see the 1 being a part of the contest.

4 Exile w/ 2, 3,1a

Now looking at the Morning lines, I realize that the 4 Exile is a huge ML favorite. That being said I probably won't play him to W/P, just not worth it. I may play the 2 W/P depending on the odds at Post. I will probably play this as a 4,2/4,2,3 exacta wheel. But it depends on the post time odds.

GULFSTREAM PARK 01/07/2010 Race #1 = 9 Gift Coupon w/ 7-5-12 Race #2 = 3 Bl'snoise w/ 7-4-10 Race #3 = 12 Simplyimpressive w/ 10-5-8 Race #4 = 5 Ocalarocket w/ 4-7-9 Race #5 = 1a Scottkeith'skitten w/ 4 Pistol Rules w/ 8-5 (Exacta box 1-4 only, no W/P) Race #6 = 2 Bylandorbysea w/ 7-6-11 Race #7 = 5 Toocleverforworsd w/ 2 SpeakEasyGal w/ 7-3 (5 W/P, Exacta wheel 5,2/5,2,7,3) ($12 race) Race #8 = 4 Thankuphillippe w/ 6-3-11 Race #9 = 13 w/ 6-12-4 (I also really like the 6 here, not sure how I am going to bet this) Total Risk for Gulfstream Park 01/07/2010 = $86 --------------------------------------------------- GOLDEN GATE PARK 01/07/2010 Race #1 = 5 ExlusiveGame w/ 1-3-2 Race #2 = 2 JulesJ w/ 6-4-3 Race #3 = 1 Zohan w/ 2-6-5 Race #4 = 8 Grylls w/ 2-3-4 Race #5 = 2 LadyDawn w/ 1-3-4 Race #6 = 5 Lordgivemealift w/ 1-6-3 Race #7 = 4 Judge'sverdict w/ 9-2-1 Race #8= 5 Perfect Hostess w/ 6-4-3 Race #2 DD = 2-1 ($2) Race #1 Pick 3 = 1,5/2/1 ($2) Race #5 Pick 4 = 1,3,2/5,2,3/4,9/5 ($18) Total Risk @ Golden Gate = $102 ---------------------- *As always for grading purposes the races will be graded with a $2 Win/Place bet on the key horse followed by an exacta wheel keying the horse listed unless otherwise noted.