Sunshine Millions Classic S.
1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Jeranimo Blanc B Pender Michael 120 L 6-1
2 2 Unusual Suspect Quinonez A Abrams Barry 122 L 30-1
3 3 Enriched Baze M C O'Neill Doug 122 L 6-1
4 4 Palladio Smith M E Attfield Roger L 122 L 30-1
5 5 Unusual Smoke Garcia M Avila A C 122 L 30-1
6 6 Bad Action Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 120 L 20-1
7 7 The Usual Q. T. Espinoza V Cassidy James 120 L 5-2
8 8 Compari Gomez G K Jones Martin F 120 L 3-1
9 9 Bold Chieftain Baze R A Morey William J Jr 122 L 6-1
10 10 Wicked Style Bejarano R Arnold George R II 122 L 10-1
11 11 Acclamation Flores D R Warren Donald 120 L 10-1


$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Rolling Double / $1 Pick Three...

 

Alright, I have asked this question to just about everyone I know who follows and bets on horse racing. I get some answers, but for the most part I get something along the lines of..."I use a bunch of stuff and just come up with my own little system." This is great, and some of those systems are working. However, I am fairly new to this whole horse racing game (football is my betting passion). So I wanted to know how different people cap races. 

What do you focus on? 
*Beyer Speeds
*Trainer %s
*History
*Jockeys
*Pedigree
*$$$
*History vs. Similar
*Class Droppers

I would assume that most people's automatic reply would be ALL OF THE ABOVE. 
As a teacher I started looking at this as a student, and realized that before I could learn I needed feedback on my own capping. Not just the getting told how other do it. So that is what I am asking here. I am going to cap a few races and try to walk through how I come to my conclusions. 

Really I would love some honest feedback on what you do different, or what you do the same. Maybe if I missed looking at something. Really just any feedback would be appreciated. 

With that in mind I am going to cap the 4th race at Santa Anita tomorrow 1/10/10. Not sure why I just picked that race, other than I was going through my capping stuff for tomorrow, and thought of this idea right before capping the 4th at Santa Anita. So here goes. 

SANTA ANITA RACE 4
1. Chailepis
1a. Sence of Occasion
2. Ol'dogtown
3. Rio Classic
4. Exile
5. Negreanu
6. Magic Dust
7. The Life of Alex

I really try to ignore the morning line when looking at this. I am not sure if that is a mistake; should that factor into it. Really this idea comes from my football capping background, when capping football I don't look at the spread before creating my own spread. 

Alright the first thing I look at is BEYER SPEEDS, I know they aren't the holy grail but its where I start. I don't really look at just the speed from the last race, but a quick glance at averages of races that are similar to the race they are in. 

2. Ol'Dogtown 79
4. Exile 78
3. Rio Classic 76
5. Negreanu 67
6. Magic Dust 66
1. 64
1a.????
7. ????

The first thing I notice is the drop between 76 speed of Rio Classic and 67 speed of Negreanu. And the 1a and 7 are first time starters so they obviously don't have speed figures. 
-------------------------------------
I have found that running styles seem to play a larger part in the races than I first thought of, so this has become the second thing I look for. I use the brisnet.com racing sheets so I am not sure how others see this but Brisnet lists them as E, E/P, P and S. In theory the more E you have the race the faster the pace will be, the faster the pace is the better its sets up the P and S runningstyles.

In this race there are 4 early pace horses:
E 2 Ol'dogtown
E 3 Rio Classic
E 5 Negreanu
E 1 Chailepis

One horse is listed as a P
P 4 Exile

The other three horses don't have run styles listed. 
------------------------------
Now I look at some notes that Brisnet has on the horses at this point I start eliminating horses and simply crossing them off the list. 
1. Chailepis
*Blinkers added - May help but probably not enough to make a difference.
*3rd vs similar - Looking at this, he did finish third, but he was 9 lengths back after weakening at the end. Also noted that he tired at the exact same 5.5 furlong distance.
*Poor Speed Figures in both career starts - 
1a. Sense of Occasion
*1st time starter
*Sharp 3f workout - Well good news for a 1st time starter
*Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters - More + signs for the 1st time starter.
2. Ol'Dogtown
*Best dirt speed is fastest among starters
*Poor Jockey and Poor Trainer %
*Listed as an E running style but has stalked and weakened in last 6f race. drop to 5.5 furlong may help.
3. Rio Classic
*Drops in class
*Hot Jockey - 2nd consecutive start with Alex Solis on board could help
*Poor Trainer %
4. Exile
*Drop in Class
*Best Dirt speed is faster than average winning speed
*Highest speed rating last
*Hasn't raced in 57 days
5. Negreanu
*Drops in class 
*Poor speed figures in only career starts
6. Magic Dust
*Hot Jockey
*Sharp 4f workout
*High trainer %
*Finished far back in last start
7. The Life of Alex
*Hot Trainer 
*First time starter
--------------------------------------
After all these steps I was able to throw out a few of the horses off my list. I got one the 4 horse Exile that is standing out in front. Also, I am starting to really like the 2 horse Ol'Dogtown.

The other ones in blue are ones that I have on my list but can't find a reason to love them or to hate them. 

However, the 3 horse Rio Classic weekened in its last race that was 7f, it also takes a drop in class where he finished 4th behind Zohan who just killed in his last start. Also like the fact that Alex Solis gets his second ride in a row. Will include this horse in my exacta box pix. 

The final horse I will include will be the 1a, I think its the best of the 1st time starters, plus with it coupled you get another horse for free in the 1 although I don't see the 1 being a part of the contest.

4 Exile w/ 2, 3,1a

Now looking at the Morning lines, I realize that the 4 Exile is a huge ML favorite. That being said I probably won't play him to W/P, just not worth it. I may play the 2 W/P depending on the odds at Post. I will probably play this as a 4,2/4,2,3 exacta wheel. But it depends on the post time odds.

GULFSTREAM PARK 01/07/2010 Race #1 = 9 Gift Coupon w/ 7-5-12 Race #2 = 3 Bl'snoise w/ 7-4-10 Race #3 = 12 Simplyimpressive w/ 10-5-8 Race #4 = 5 Ocalarocket w/ 4-7-9 Race #5 = 1a Scottkeith'skitten w/ 4 Pistol Rules w/ 8-5 (Exacta box 1-4 only, no W/P) Race #6 = 2 Bylandorbysea w/ 7-6-11 Race #7 = 5 Toocleverforworsd w/ 2 SpeakEasyGal w/ 7-3 (5 W/P, Exacta wheel 5,2/5,2,7,3) ($12 race) Race #8 = 4 Thankuphillippe w/ 6-3-11 Race #9 = 13 w/ 6-12-4 (I also really like the 6 here, not sure how I am going to bet this) Total Risk for Gulfstream Park 01/07/2010 = $86 --------------------------------------------------- GOLDEN GATE PARK 01/07/2010 Race #1 = 5 ExlusiveGame w/ 1-3-2 Race #2 = 2 JulesJ w/ 6-4-3 Race #3 = 1 Zohan w/ 2-6-5 Race #4 = 8 Grylls w/ 2-3-4 Race #5 = 2 LadyDawn w/ 1-3-4 Race #6 = 5 Lordgivemealift w/ 1-6-3 Race #7 = 4 Judge'sverdict w/ 9-2-1 Race #8= 5 Perfect Hostess w/ 6-4-3 Race #2 DD = 2-1 ($2) Race #1 Pick 3 = 1,5/2/1 ($2) Race #5 Pick 4 = 1,3,2/5,2,3/4,9/5 ($18) Total Risk @ Golden Gate = $102 ---------------------- *As always for grading purposes the races will be graded with a $2 Win/Place bet on the key horse followed by an exacta wheel keying the horse listed unless otherwise noted.

This experiment "BGboothA is Horsing around" is only in its third day here on SBR.  I am tracking it throughout the rest of the year to see how it goes.  Start of a new year = start of a new experiment.  Thus far I am up a nice $66 during the first two days of the campaign.  

Alright, I don't have access to the forum from the workplace (its my planning period) so I am going to post a few picks for Turf Paradise this afternoon.  

Race #1 = 4-2-1-3 (NO BET)

Race #2 = 1 Louder w/ 3-7-2

$$Race #3 =Bocalli w/ 1a-2b-7

Race #4 = 1 Kingsville - 4 GrandParoy w/ 6-3 (EXACTA BOX ONLY 1/4)

$$Race #5 = 2 Sezabean w/ 6-3-7

Race #6 = 1 Realawsomejet w/ 3-6-5

Race #7 = 6 Reeldanger - 5 quietlyroar w/ 4-3 (EXACTA BOX ONLY 6/5)

Race #8 = 8Darl'sGem w/ 5-7-4

$$Race #9 = 5 Incommandcat w/ 9-7-1 ($$WP ONLY no Exacta)

For tracking purposes each race is a $10 bet unless otherwise noted in green.  I will bet a $2 win/place on the lead horse along with an $2 exacta wheel keying the lead horse.  So for instance the 8th race at Turf Paradise this afternoon I am keying the 8 horse Darl'sGem.  I will make a $2 win/place bet that totals $4.  I will also make an exacta wheel bet keying the 8 horse with horses 5-7-4 at $2 each so a total of $6 bets. Totaling $10 risk on each race.

This will be the format for all of my posts here on SBR unless otherwise noted.  For instance during the 9th race I will still make a $10 bet, however it will be used on the WP only focusing on the 5 horse Incommandcat.  Resulting in a $5 Win/Place bet or a total of a $10 bet.  The other races where noted, will bet the same, each race will still result in a $10 bet. So the two exacta box only's will be $5 exacta boxes resulting in a total of $10 bet for that race.  Results will follow everyday in the thread here on SBR.  I will hopefully not be doing most of this via the blog, but for the time being this is the only way I can access the account here on SBR, and get a time stamp on my picks. 

The $ signs in front of a race signify that I will key those horses in a pick 3 or pick 4.   Those are the races in which I feel you could single a horse and feel confident with the single.  

 

 

Week 17 - a few games with thoughts

  Weeks 16 and 17 are often looked at as the hardest weeks to cap NFL football, but that doesn't have to be the case.  Remember, when looking at these you have to keep some things in perspective.  NOT ALL THE GAMES MATTER, in fact some games only matter to one team, while others may not seem to matter to either team involved. 
We got a great glimpse of this in week 16 during the Indianapolis loss to the New York Jets with Peyton, Reggie and gang sitting on the sidelines.  Week 17 will have its share of superstars and starters watching the latter halves of the games from the sidelines.   Indianapolis @ Buffalo = well this one really doesn't matter for either team, Indy is already set as the #1 seed in the AFC, with home field clinched throughout the playoffs.  Buffalo on the other hand is sitting at 5-10 staring at another horrific season even with T.O. running routes.  As of writing this there is no line set here, I would think that even Indianapolis's backups would be favored against Buffalo here.  I will stay away from this game unless the line comes out somewhere crazy.   New Orleans @ Carolina = Another game very similar to the one above, New Orleans may be on a downward slide but they will get relief in Carolina in week 17.  The only difference is the simple fact that no one wants to go into the playoffs on a three game losing streak and that exactly what New Orleans is facing if they lose to Carolina.  Carolina is looking playing for a .500 season, a win here and they can finish 8-8.  Not sure it save the coach's job, but at least they can have some motivation in front of the home crowd.   Jacksonville @ Cleveland = Well technically Jacksonville is mathematically alive, but they would need to win and have a whole myriad of help from around the league to grab a wild card win.  The good news for us betters  is that they play during the first set of games, so according to them their season still has hope.  This is important to keep in mind, they will be playing for a win, along with their .500 season.  Don't let Cleveland's record of 4-11 fool you, they will show up to play, they have a roster full of young talent trying to make a name for themselves.  Cribbs is playing for a new contract and a new team, Brady wants to squash the QB controversy before training camp, and Harrison is simply looking like a stud in the making.  This is a close game, the fact that Cleveland is at home and is only a 1 point favorite should say something.   Chicago @ Detroit = Chicago is coming off a huge win on Monday night against Minnesota, but frankly this game is worthless to all that are involved.  The Lions might play in front of friends and family in Detroit, but I am not sure even the people of Detroit or Chicago will care about this game.  Cutler needs to prove he wasn't a mistake for Chicago and could come out and have another big game against a bad defense and hope no one realizes when looking back at his numbers.  Detroit will be starting a season ticket holder at quarterback before the game is over and really this game should fall into Chicago's arms pretty easily.    To be continued tomorrow.... 

 

Turkey Day Picks

In a Thanksgiving Day tradition, the Green Bay Packers will go into Detroit and lay down a good ol? fashion turkey shoot. The line is set at 10.5 and it should be more like 17.5. Stafford is out, but I don?t think that makes a great difference in this game, the difference maker in this game will be the Detroit defense against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers electric offense. Detroit has given up 275 yards per game in the air during the season, Aaron Rodgers will be able to pick them apart and...

Turkey Day Picks

 

In a Thanksgiving Day tradition, the Green Bay Packers will go into Detroit and lay down a good ol’ fashion turkey shoot.   The line is set at 10.5 and it should be more like 17.5.  Stafford is out, but I don’t think that makes a great difference in this game, the difference maker in this game will be the Detroit defense against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers electric offense.  Detroit has given up 275 yards per game in the air during the season, Aaron Rodgers will be able to pick them apart and the 10.5 point spread should be met by half-time.  Detroit numbers claim they average 18 points per game, but that number is inflated due to the 38 point game they put up last week, the four weeks prior to the shoot out with Cleveland the Lions only scored 10 points per game.  With that in mind, it is easy to assume the Packers can hang 21 points against a horrible Lions defense.   Take the Packers and lay the 10.5 points with confidence.

 

The total in the Packers and Lions game is set at 47.5 which is just about where I would have expected it to be.  The teams average a total of 46.8 points between the two of them, with Stafford out and facing a decent Green Bay defense I would expect the Lions output to go down, while the Packers output to go up.  I won’t be touching this total.

 

Oakland will go into Dallas after shocking the Bengals on a late fumbled kickoff last week.  Dallas on the other hand is coming off a skin of their teeth win against a horrible Redskins team.  Jerry Jones knows that they will be on the national spotlight this Thursday, and will expect the Cowboys to win easily, I am just not sure they can.   The Oakland pass defense has had some very good games this year and I expect that to continue against Romo and the cowboys.   The Raiders have only allowed 207 yards through the air a game, the way the Cowboys will win this game is on the ground and the Cowboys running game isn’t one that will blow someone out of the water.  I don’t expect the Raiders to win the game, but they keep it within two touchdowns.  The line is set at 13.5, and I would recommend buying the half point and taking the Raiders +14.

 

Now the total is a play here in my opinion, the line is set at 40.5 and most think it looks low, but neither of these offenses look like they will score a great deal of points, and the Raiders defense will hold Romo to minimal scoring opportunities, this could easily turn into a field goal fest and the under is the play here. 

 

What has happened to the Broncos?  At the beginning of the season, they looked like a team to beat in the AFC, now they just look like a team easily beaten in the AFC.  The Giants are coming off a game they tried to lose against Atlanta, while the Broncos are coming off another shellacking from San Diego.  This game doesn’t seem like its going to be close, the Bronco’s have shown nothing lately that would show they have the ability to hang with Eli and the Giants.  The Giants on the other hand will put a great deal of pressure on Kyle Orton making his decision making a key part of this game.  With that in mind, I have no problem taking the Giants in Denver giving up less than a touchdown. 

 

It is rare that I am willing to give up 7 points and take the under in a game, but I think that’s what we are looking at here in this game.  The Giants offense should be enough to score 25 points or so against the Broncos but I don’t see the Bronco’s offense scoring more than 17 against the Giants, the line is set at 42 and I don’t see the Broncos doing their part to hit the total.  Small play on the Under. 

 

RECAP

Packers -10.5

 

Oakland +14 (bought 0.5 points)

Oakland / Dallas UNDER 40

 

New York Giants -6.5

New York Giants / Denver Broncos UNDER 42.

Let’s put this game in perspective tonight….the Browns have scored 9.8 points per game through the first 9 weeks of the NFL.  And now on Monday night they get to welcome the Baltimore Ravens and their defense into Cleveland for a nice homecoming butt whooping.  The spread is just over 10 points and this game won’t even be close. 

 

The Browns offense may be stagnant to say the least, but the defense is equally is horrific.  The Browns have allowed 170 yards per game to opposing running backs this season, Ray Rice and Willis McGahee are going to have a field day.  Flacco and the passing game aren’t going to have a hard time either, Cleveland has managed to simultaneously give up 240 yards a game through the air as well.  With all this in mind it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the final score represents more of an early college football score.  Ravens could win this game by 30+ if they wanted to. 

 

The Ravens defense isn’t all it used to be with Rex Ryan running the show, but it won’t matter.  Brady Quinn is back behind the helm of the Cleveland offense and there is a good chance he will complete more passes to the Ravens defense than his own wide receivers.  I don’t see how this game could go in Cleveland’s direction.  The safest bet you can make this season may be the Ravens money line at -550. 

 

The spread should be just as easy, the only concern would be if Baltimore doesn’t look to run up the score and is happy with a 10 point lead in Cleveland, but I am not sold that Baltimore could stop scoring against Cleveland if they wanted to.  Baltimore should have a 10 point lead by half-time and never look back. 

 

The total is a different story, 39 seems a little high considering the two teams average scoring is around 34.  But considering that the Ravens defense could easily be responsible for 14 points on their own I won’t be touching this total.  It seems like an easy under call, but so many easy scoring opportunities  make this a total not worth touching. 

 

Still not convinced?  Baltimore is 16-6 against the spread in their last 22 games, Cleveland 3-9 against the spread in the last twelve.  The total is still confusing, Baltimore’s total has gone under in 4 of its last 6 games, Cleveland’s total has gone under in 4 of its last 6 games at home as well.  However five of the last six times these two teams have met the total has gone over.  Including a 34-3 romping earlier this year in Baltimore. 

 

Baltimore ML = 10 units

Baltimore -10.5 = 3 units

Baltimore -12 (+110) = 2 units

Over/Under = No Play

 

I got on this game early in the week at -10.5, while looking at the game again, I noticed that 5dimes was offering a different line of -12 at +110.  I thought it was good value there at the +110 so added a couple more units to a late play with a new line.  

Week 8

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

The 6-0 Broncos visit the 3-3 Ravens, the most important thing for me in this game is getting past previous ideas that I had of these two teams. Denver is now a defensive powerhouse that has only allowed 11 points per game, while Baltimore is the offensive juggernaut averaging over 28 points per game. Flacco and company have thrown for 268 yards a game and will look to their high powered offense to carry them in this one. Denver has proven to be who they say they are, they have already...